Original assumption
01The forecast relied on a particular event occurring before the deadline.
Memory for
forecasting agents.
Keep sources, assumptions and forecast revisions together. Let research agents compare new evidence with earlier assessments.
WORKFLOW EXAMPLEPrediction markets
Research agentReview new evidence
Context starts here
The next response starts with what your agent already knows.
LIGHTHOUSE MEMORY03 RECORDS
Research context
Source record
02Keep the publication date and reference behind that assumption.
Previous revision
03Record which evidence changed the last assessment.
Context available to recall
Example inputs and responses showing how memory fits into this workflow.
34,000Builders on Lighthouse
Saved context.
Available to connected applications.
THE PROBLEMWhat gets lost
What gets lost
between sessions.
Forecasts become isolated answers
A probability without its assumptions is hard to revisit when new evidence appears.
Sources get separated from claims
Research notes spread across sessions, making the origin and age of an observation difficult to follow.
Resolved outcomes go unused
Without a recorded history, teams cannot easily compare what they expected with what actually happened.
WITH LIGHTHOUSEWhat an agent’s brain
What an agent’s brain
can remember.
Store the sources and assumptions behind each forecast. A research agent can retrieve them when new evidence arrives and record why the assessment changed.
Keep evidence with its source
Save source references, publication dates and research notes. Retrieve the evidence behind a forecast during the next review.
Record the assumptions
Write the conditions supporting a forecast. Retrieve them when a new observation may change the assessment.
Track forecast revisions
Save each assessment with a timestamp and explanation. Compare revisions while retaining earlier records.
Review resolved outcomes
Link the result to earlier assumptions and evidence. Your application handles scoring and decides what to use in future research.
THE WORKFLOWHow the workflow
How the workflow
uses memory.
Save the evidence, revisit the forecast, then record the outcome.
- 01
Write the evidence
Record source references, timestamps, market tags and the assumptions they inform.
- 02
Recall before revising
Retrieve related evidence and previous assessments when new information arrives.
- 03
Close the review loop
Record the resolved outcome and review it against the research history.
WHAT LIGHTHOUSE PROVIDES
Lighthouse preserves the research record. Source accuracy, forecast scoring and market actions remain part of your application.
IMPLEMENTATIONSet up the records.
Set up the records.
Connect your application.
Choose what to store, how to retrieve it and which checks your application must perform.
Read the memory docs01
Choose an event or market identifier that stays consistent across sessions.
02
Store observations separately from the agent’s interpretation.
03
Timestamp each forecast and record the resolution criteria.
04
Implement forecast scoring and market actions in your own application.
COMMON QUESTIONSBefore
Before
you build.
Does Lighthouse predict market outcomes?
No. It provides a way to persist and recall the research context your forecasting application uses. The model and application produce the assessment.
Can it check whether a source is true?
A stored reference helps trace a claim back to its source. Evaluating source reliability and factual accuracy remains part of the research workflow.
How do we organise related markets?
Your application can use namespaces and tags to organise records by event, market or topic, then query the relevant context.
Can we review earlier forecasts?
Persist the forecast, timestamp, rationale and source references. Your application can retrieve these records alongside the resolved outcome for comparison.
